Golf Rantings: February Madness!

Golf Betting Lines

02/20/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite the efforts of Golf Channel and its bracket announcement special Monday morning, the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship pales a wee bit in comparison to the Selection Sunday you'll see in a little less than three weeks.

Yet, this is the strongest field to date on the PGA Tour schedule this season. The top 64 players in the world rankings are eligible and only two passed on the event.

Phil Mickelson, who would go in as the favorite based on his play two Sundays ago at Pebble Beach and a playoff loss at the Northern Trust Open, scheduled a family vacation for this week. That's code for "I don't really want to play in this event that much."

Paul Casey is still hurt and he's a two-time runner-up in this championship. He'd be a contender, but his absence won't be missed too terribly.

The field is set. The matches are penciled in, barring any other withdrawals, so let's analyze the brackets, found at http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=golf- e/stat/MATCHPLAY-BRACKET.htm

BOBBY JONES BRACKET

Luke Donald comes into the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed and the defending champion. He couldn't be overjoyed to draw Ernie Els in the first round, but Els' record in this event borders on pathetic, so Donald should be a safe bet to advance past him.

Otherwise, this features some interesting names and perhaps the most interesting first-round match.

Dustin Johnson is the third seed and will meet Jim Furyk in Round 1. Johnson hits it a mile. Furyk will give up about 35 yards off the tee, but has the pedigree and mettle to take down Johnson, who showed serious short game problems Sunday at Riviera.

Thomas Bjorn is a fascinating name. He knocked out Tiger Woods last year and could make some waves.

This bracket will come down to Donald and upset special Bo Van Pelt. He's the No. 7 seed and will advance with wins over Mark Wilson and Johnson.

Donald will overcome all. His match-game record in both this event and the Ryder Cup is sterling and, frankly, this bracket doesn't do much for me. Johnson is shaky in clutch moments and No. 2 seed Adam Scott has missed a lot of time after having his tonsils taken out.

BEN HOGAN BRACKET

Martin Kaymer is the top seed and last year's runner-up. His game hasn't been sharp, but the biggest potential problem for the German is if it's chilly out and he has to wear a preposterous outfit (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/- cZPiekO71iM/TWlDs_o-LMI/AAAAAAAADqc/G_XQkzKiy-c/s1600/109453888%2Bkaymer.jpg).

Kaymer didn't get a great first-round draw, either. Greg Chalmers won twice in Australia at the end of last year and will get a ton of upset buzz, but Kaymer should be all right.

More than anything in this format, you'll see players who have done well continue to do well. Kaymer is one of them.

He will face Bubba Watson, the No. 5 seed, in the third round and Watson will take him down. Watson and Ben Crane will take longer than my sophomore year of college to complete their first-round match, but Bubba is truly one of the world's best right now. Like Kaymer, he has a strong record in this event and he will represent the Hogan bracket in the semifinals.

Graeme McDowell is a weak No. 3 and could meet Hunter Mahan in the second round if they both win. That would be a rematch of the decisive Ryder Cup bout from two years ago, when McDowell holed a long birdie putt to win 16, then watched Mahan barely make contact with the ball on 17.

I'm going with Mahan to come out of the lower half. No. 2 seed Steve Stricker gives pause for concern. Yes, he won the season opener in Hawaii, but with a balky neck, can he endure a possible six matches in five days?

GARY PLAYER BRACKET

Rory McIlroy is the No. 1 seed and this bracket is sneaky good. Geoff Ogilvy is the No. 12 seed, but a two-time winner. Ian Poulter is No. 6 and won two years ago. Keegan Bradley just showed a ton of marbles in his playoff loss to Bill Haas at Riviera, but the man who will come out of this bracket is the fourth seed.

Sergio Garcia was the best player on the course Sunday at the Northern Trust Open. He will have a tough time against his fellow Spaniard Miguel Angel Jimenez in the first round, but Garcia is in great form.

He'll have a tough paper route to get to the semifinals. Garcia will have to eliminate The Mechanic, either Bradley or Ogilvy, then McIlroy. Poulter will be waiting at the bottom half, but Garcia gets by.

SAM SNEAD BRACKET

And now we get to Tiger Woods.

He is a three-time winner, but has been prone to some hiccups in this tournament. There was Bjorn last year, and anyone remember him losing to Peter O'Malley in his prime?

Woods drew Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano on Wednesday. He's due respect, but Woods will walk by that one. A match-up with Nick Watney or Woods' good buddy Darren Clarke looms. Watney is perhaps the most under-appreciated great player in the game. He will add his name to the list that bested Woods.

This is a great chance for Tiger this week. His match-up singles record since the scandal has been overall very impressive, aside from the Bjorn bumbling of 2011.

He trounced Francesco Molinari at the 2010 Ryder Cup and hammered Aaron Baddeley at the past Presidents Cup. Woods doesn't have to be spectacular to win in match play. He just has to do enough. Sounds foolish, but if Woods gets by Watney (and I don't think he will), he could go on to the semifinals.

Lee Westwood is No. 1 in the bracket, but has a shaky 7-11 record.

Haas is at the bottom of the draw with No. 2 Webb Simpson. My hunch is Watney knocks off No. 10 Martin Laird to get into the last four. Laird hits it a ton and is just the type of unheralded player who always does well in this thing.

SEMIFINALS

Watson and Donald should be a fantastic blend of opposites, not unlike a fine bowl of chocolate and vanilla ice cream. Donald will advance, but he's not going to win it all.

That honor will belong to Garcia.

Very quietly, Garcia has been one of the top five players in the sport since last fall. He won twice in his home soil at the end of last year's European Tour campaign.

This year, he has a pair of top-fives in only three starts. Garcia's final- round 64 at Riviera sealed the deal.

Sergio Garcia, 2012 WGC-Accenture Match Play Champion.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- The drama at the Northern Trust Open proved that golf can survive without Woods in a prominent role. It will just need Mickelson.

- There was a fascinating Twitter dust-up about Keegan Bradley's constant spitting Sunday. It shouldn't have taken away from the spectacular golf, and it's hard to tell a guy what to do in the pressure of back-nine Sunday golf, but watching a guy spit for five hours can be a little stomach-turning. My hunch is someone says something casually to Bradley that golf courses aren't his private spittoons.

- Movie moment - Oscar picks - "The Artist" for Best Picture, Clooney in the tightest race of the night for Best Actor, Viola Davis for Best Actress, Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor for a movie not one person you know has ever seen and Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress, although I wouldn't count out Melissa McCarthy. Call it the Marisa Tomei theory.

- And, finally, the greatest thing that I have ever, or will ever write is that my son Lukas Blee Brighters was born last Friday. Golf is one of those transcendent things that unite fathers and sons. It did with my father and golf is certainly one of those things I most look forward to teaching my son. Then I'll get him lessons.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.

NFL Football Betting


BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES

It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.

BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES

All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.

COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES

Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.

TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES

Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.

RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.

PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.

JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.

SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.

VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES

Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.

DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES

Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.

SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES

I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.

BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES

Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.

BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES

Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.

RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES

A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.

PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers

Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.