Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/20/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - EUROPEAN TOUR - WGC-ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP, The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club (Saguaro/Tortolita Nines), Dove Mountain, Marana, Arizona - Professional golf's version of March Madness hits in February.
The top 64 players in the world rankings are eligible to tee it up this week, although two backed out. Phil Mickelson, a playoff loser at Riviera, announced weeks ago that he had a family vacation scheduled, so he's out.
Paul Casey, a two-time runner-up, is still out with injury. The benefactors of those withdrawals are George Coetzee and Ernie Els, who, surprisingly, will be the No. 64 seed.
That means Els drew world No. 1 and defending champion Luke Donald in Wednesday's first round.
Donald's ascension to the No. 1 ranking began in a lot of ways at this time last year. He bested Martin Kaymer in, 3 & 2 in the final. The loss pushed Kaymer to first in the rankings, but Donald used the victory, where none of his matches made it to the 18th hole, as a springboard.
He won the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour and then became No. 1. Donald captured the Scottish Open and, needing a victory to win the money title on the PGA Tour, took home the season-ending Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic.
All totaled, Donald won the money title on both the PGA Tour and European Tour, becoming the first player in history to accomplish the feat.
Donald is No. 1 overall and tops the Bobby Jones bracket. Kaymer is first in the Ben Hogan bracket, while U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy is highest-ranked in the Gary Player bracket. Lee Westwood is the final No. 1 seed and he heads up the Sam Snead bracket.
There will be 32 first-round matches on Wednesday, followed by 16 second-round matches on Thursday, eight third-round matches on Friday, with the quarterfinals on Saturday. The semifinals are Sunday morning, while the championship and consolation matches will be held Sunday afternoon.
Could this be the week Tiger Woods finally wins again on the PGA Tour? He's a three-time champion, a match-play wizard and owner of impressive tournament records.
Woods trounced Stewart Cink, 8 & 7, to win in 2008. That is the largest margin of victory in a championship and Woods' owns the biggest winning margin in tournament history with a 9 & 8, drubbing of Stephen Ames in 2006.
Golf Channel has the broadcast for the first three rounds and early coverage on Saturday and Sunday. NBC has the end of the action on the weekend.
The PGA Tour travels to Florida next week for The Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, where Rory Sabbatini is the defending champion. The European Tour and PGA Tour will be in Florida in two weeks for the WGC - Cadillac Championship in Miami, where Nick Watney will defend his title.
PGA TOUR
MAYAKOBA GOLF CLASSIC - El Camaleon, Riviera Maya, Mexico - With the world's best at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship, the rest of the PGA Tour can tee it up down in Mexico.
Last year, Johnson Wagner downed Spencer Levin in a playoff to earn his second PGA Tour title. This year, these two have had major roles in the 2012 PGA Tour season.
Wagner won the Sony Open in Hawaii, after a top 10 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He tied for second at the Humana Challenge and won January's PGA Tour Player of the Month.
Levin squandered a six-shot lead during the final round of the Phoenix Open.
Greg Norman is the course designer and will be playing in his second PGA Tour event of the season. Norman teed it up in the Humana Challenge at the behest of his friend and tournament host, President Bill Clinton.
John Cook, a Champions Tour standout, joins fellow elder circuit players, 2007 winner Fred Funk, Nick Price and Tom Lehman in the field. Funk became the second golfer in history to win on the Champions Tour, then go back and win on the PGA Tour when he titled here in 2007.
Golf Channel has tape-delayed coverage all week.
Next week, the PGA Tour travels to Florida for The Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, where Sabbatini is the defending champion.
LPGA TOUR
HSBC WOMEN'S CHAMPIONS 2012 - Tanah Merah Country Club, Garden Course, Singapore - The LPGA Tour ends its Asian swing with a stop in Singapore for the HSBC Women's Champions.
A select field will be on hand, including last week's winner in Thailand, world No. 1 Yani Tseng. European Solheim Cuppers Melissa Reid and Laura Davies were given sponsor's exemptions.
Last year, Karrie Webb shot a three-under 69 in Sunday's final round to overcome leader Chie Arimura. It was the 37th career LPGA Tour victory for Webb, who picked up win No. 38 in her very next start, the RR Donnelley LPGA Founders Cup.
Arimura had led after each of the first three rounds, but the Hall-of-Famer snuck by in the final round. With Webb's first-place check for $210,000, she became the second player after Annika Sorenstam to surpass $16 million in career earnings.
The HSBC Women's Champions was the first official stroke-play event that the LPGA Tour has played in Singapore. Tanah Merah Country Club in Singapore is the site of this week's event and has hosted the Singapore Open, the Johnnie Walker Classic on the European Tour and the Lexus Cup on the LPGA Tour.
Golf Channel will handle the broadcast.
In three weeks, the LPGA Tour returns for the RR Donnelley LPGA Founders Cup with Webb as its defending champion.
<< Spurs sign Dawson to 10-day contract
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs have signed forward
Eric Dawson to a 10-day contract.
Dawson has appeared in 18 games for Austin of the NBA Development League and
is averaging 15.9 points with 10.1 rebounds and
<< Brewers sign five to one-year contracts
Maryvale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pitchers Marco Estrada, Mike McClendon and Tim
Dillard were among five players the Milwaukee Brewers signed to one-year
contracts on Monday.
Estrada went 4-8 with a 4.08 earned run average in 43 games
<< Hiller, Wheeler and Spezza named NHL's 'Three Stars'
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anaheim Ducks goaltender Jonas Hiller,
Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler and Ottawa Senators forward Jason Spezza
have been selected as the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending February 19.
Hill
<< Raonic on the rise
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If you're trying to find young tennis
stars from Canada (or anywhere else for that matter), look no further than
Milos Raonic.
Okay, Raonic (pronounced Rau-nitch) plays under the Canadian flag o
Rangers don't need to make a big move >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York fans made it clear on Sunday just
how much they want the Rangers to pursue Columbus Blue Jackets superstar Rick
Nash.
After Nash scored a game-tying goal with 1:33 left in Sunday's game at
Madiso
Baylor remains undisputed No. 1; Stanford moves to second >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baylor remained an undisputed choice as the
No. 1 team in the Associated Press women's college basketball poll.
The undefeated Lady Bears again received all 40 first-place votes and a total
of 1,000 point
Bolts' Ohlund to have knee surgery >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning announced Monday that
defenseman Mattias Ohlund will have left knee surgery later in the week.
The 35-year-old Swede hasn't played a game this season because of the
troublesom
Golf Rantings: February Madness! >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite the efforts of Golf Channel and
its bracket announcement special Monday morning, the WGC-Accenture Match Play
Championship pales a wee bit in comparison to the Selection Sunday you'll see
in a little
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting