Up the backstretch: Turf horse took to Golden Gate's artificial track

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/21/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A 3-year-old colt that had never won a race except on the grass came away Saturday with a key victory on a synthetic surface. The change in surfaces for Daddy Nose Best proved to be beneficial for him to win the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Owned by Bob Zollars and trained by Steve Asmussen, Daddy Nose Best was making just his third start on a main track and his first on a synthetic surface. His two career wins before Saturday were both on turf courses.

Daddy Nose Best was again ridden by Julien Leparoux in the El Camino Real a partnership that produced two wins, a second and a third in six starts on grass.

Asmussen didn't make the trip to Golden Gate Fields, giving the assignment to assistant trainer Darren Fleming,

"We came here because of the added distance and his experience on turf which carries over to synthetic," Fleming said. "Winning (the El Camino Real Derby) last year with Silver Medallion helped our decision. He's been getting better with time, and he's trained with a different mindset since his last race. He's been showing us he wanted more ground, so we've had to wait for the races to catch up to him."

The 1 1/8 miles of the El Camino Real was just the right distance for the colt, which was able to stick his nose on the wire inches ahead of 5-2 second pick Lucky Chappy.

"I didn't know if I won or not," said Leparoux, who came in special for the race. "It was too close to call. It was nice to see the horse fight back."

Daddy Nose Best was no stranger to stakes races. He was third last year in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs. After winning a turf allowance in late November at Churchill Downs, he was fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita on New Year's Eve.

The colt's next start is still undecided as apparently Zollars, Asmussen and Fleming will put their heads together and come up with a plan.

"He came out of the race really good," Fleming said Sunday. "It was a great race. Steve and Bob will get together and discuss his next race."

An added benefit to winning the graded race is the $120,000 that Daddy Nose Best gains if his connections are thinking of running in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

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The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

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